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03/14/2009 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The San Jose Sharks hope that a visit from the Kings will be enough to get them back on track. The club hosts Los Angeles tonight at HP Pavilion.
The Sharks had led the Western Conference for most of the season, but now find themselves a point back of front-running Detroit in the standings thanks to losses in five of their last six games.
San Jose halted a four-game slide on Tuesday versus Minnesota, but was then handed a 3-1 defeat by St. Louis on Thursday. Patrick Marleau had the lone goal for San Jose, his career-high 35th tally. That surpassed the 34 he netted in 2005-06.
Making his seventh straight start for the injured Evgeni Nabokov (lower-body injury), Brian Boucher halted 23 of the 25 shots he faced. Boucher is 2-4-1 with a 2.97 goals against average since Nabokov's recent injury.
Nabokov could return tonight in at least a backup role. The Sharks reassigned goaltender Thomas Greiss to the American Hockey League on Friday, seemingly signaling Nabokov's return.
The Kings could be a good team for Boucher to start against though. He has won both outings against them this year, halting 47-of-49 shots while notching a shutout.
Defenseman Rob Blake could also return against his old team tonight after missing the last two games due to a foot injury. Blake played with the Kings from 1989 through part of the 2000-01 season and then again in the last two seasons before joining the Sharks this offseason. He has 39 points this year.
San Jose is 26-3-4 at home this year and will play its next two on the road following this contest.
The Sharks have won all four meetings with the Kings this season and seven of the last eight meetings as well. That includes three straight wins as the host.
The Kings had a three-game winning streak end last night in Vancouver, keeping the club five points back of a playoff spot. Alexander Frolov and Anze Kopitar scored 26 seconds apart in the third period to erase a two-goal deficit, but the Canucks rallied for a 4-2 win.
Kopitar scored for the fifth time in his last six games and he has also added four assists in that span. He leads the Kings with 35 assists and 59 points this year.
Jonathan Quick stopped 28-of-32 shots for the Kings, who lost for the fifth straight time on the road and have been held to two goals or fewer in four of those defeats. Los Angeles is 13-16-1 overall in the road this year.
<< Oilers welcome road-challenged Avs to Edmonton
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - If the Edmonton Oilers are to reach the playoffs, they'll
need to take advantage of an upcoming stretch of home games, especially ones
against teams that have struggled on the road this season.
The Oilers will face such an
<< Wild, Stars face off in Dallas
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two teams feverishly fighting for a playoff spot face off
tonight at the American Airlines Center, where the Dallas Stars host the
Minnesota Wild in a key late-season showdown.
The Stars enter this important matchup tied w
<< Panthers begin important homestand against Lightning
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Florida Panthers begin what could be their most
important homestand in recent memory with tonight's tussle with the Tampa Bay
Lightning from the BankAtlantic Center.
Florida, which has not reached the postseason since
<< Caps aim for first home win of March against Hurricanes
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Washington Capitals have been one of the NHL's best
home teams this season, but they have yet to find any success on their own ice
during the month of March.
The Southeast Division leaders will try to break a four-game
Rangers, Flyers begin home-and-home set in Philly >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Hoping to continue their turnaround on the road, the New
York Rangers will aim to extend their recent success in Philadelphia with
today's contest versus the Flyers at the Wachovia Center that begins a home-
and-home series.
Voronin keeps Hertha four points clear >>
Berlin, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Andriy Voronin's goal in the 50th minute
was enough to see Hertha Berlin past Bayer Leverkusen, 1-0 at Olympiastadion
on Saturday.
The win keeps Hertha four points clear of both Bayern Munich and Wo
Liverpool revives title hopes >>
Manchester, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Liverpool's slim title hopes got a shot
in the arm on Saturday as the club recorded a massive 4-1 win over Manchester
United at Old Trafford.
The win cuts United's lead over Liverpool to four po
Binghamton tops UMBC for AEC crown and first NCAA bid >>
Binghamton, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Reggie Fuller notched a double-double with
19 points and 10 rebounds, while D.J. Rivera added 16 points, as Binghamton
punched a ticket to the NCAA Tournament for the first time with a 61-51
victory
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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