Ryu grabs lead at Women's Australian Open

Golf Betting Lines

02/10/2012 - Victoria, Australia (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Reigning U.S. Women's Open champion So Yeon Ryu fired a four-under 69 on Friday to climb into the lead after two rounds of the Women's Australian Open, while Hee Kyung Seo used a big round to get into contention.

Ryu sits at six-under-par 140, one shot in front of Seo, whose seven-under 66 on Friday turned her chances around after she began the LPGA season-opener with a 75.

The two are in a familiar spot, competing at the top of the leaderboard. Ryu beat Seo in a three-hole playoff to win the U.S. Women's Open title last July. Seo then went on to win rookie of the year, the same honor Ryu is aiming for in 2012.

"It is still the start of the season," Ryu, who was a member of the Korean LPGA last year, said. "I don't know how I can win the tournament. But the goal is rookie of the year."

First-round co-leaders Stacy Lewis and Sarah Kemp both struggled Friday. Kemp shot a six-over 79 and dropped into a tie for 19th at plus-two, while Lewis persevered through an eventful back nine to post an even-par 73.

During a seven-hole stretch, Lewis posted three bogeys, a triple-bogey, two birdies and an eagle. She reached seven-under, then fell to two-under, and needed the eagle at No. 17 just to make par for the round.

She sits in third at four-under-par 142, tied with Jessica Korda (70), Julieta Granada (72) and Melissa Reid (71).

Yani Tseng, the two-time defending champion, posted a quadruple-bogey at No. 7 and finished with a 76 to drop to even-par overall. Only nine players have been able to stay below par through two rounds.

Seo's round was all the more impressive because she bogeyed two holes, including her first, No. 10. But after that, she ran off three consecutive birdies -- and six in her next eight holes overall -- to make the turn at three-under.

She was cruising until a bogey at the par-four No. 4, but again rebounded immediately. Seo drained consecutive birdies at five and six before adding another at the eighth, ending her ascent. The 66 is the best round of the tournament so far.

"Sometimes when I play this kind of course, I am afraid too much about the course and can't play my game and can't make my own swing," Seo said. "But today I was thinking about routine process and coming on the target and that worked really good."

Ryu didn't have as far to go to get to the top of the leaderboard, having posted a two-under 71 on Thursday.

She didn't get off to the best start Friday, with a bogey on her second hole. But, like Seo, she used a string of birdies to rebound.

A birdie at the par-four 13th got the stroke back, and consecutive birdies from the 16th put Ryu at minus-four heading around the turn. She birdied three of her first six holes on the front nine, but a bogey at the seventh bumped her back to six-under.

Still, that was good enough to hold the lead when many players couldn't stay near the top of the leaderboard.

Lewis' fall was extremely abrupt. After a birdie at No. 13 put her at seven- under, she triple-bogeyed the 14th and bogeyed the next two holes to lose whatever grasp of the lead she had.

Tseng was one shot behind the leaders after the first round, and started to make a charge with birdies at the second and third. But the world's top-ranked player, who won seven times on the LPGA Tour and 12 times worldwide last season, also fell quickly.

In addition to the quadruple-bogey, Tseng bogeyed Nos. five, eight and nine, and made the turn at plus-two. She played a bogey-free back nine, but couldn't make up for the 41-stroke front nine.

American teenage sensation Lexi Thompson, who turned 17 years old on Friday, shot another 74 and is tied for 19th at plus-two. She is the youngest winner in LPGA and Ladies European Tour history, having won the LPGA Classic in September and Dubai Ladies Masters in December.

NOTES: The cut is expected to fall at seven-over-par 153. Among those who missed it was Laura Davies (159), the 2004 and 2009 champion of this event. She was also runner-up to Tseng in 2010...Second-ranked Suzann Pettersen posted a two-under 71 on Friday. She had stumbled to an 80 for her first round...Fourth-ranked Cristie Kerr just made the cut, despite shooting a five- over 78 on Friday.

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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